Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Malaysian PM in the hot seat after bad poll result

Source : The Canberra Times


"Angkasawan" means astronaut in Bahasa Malaysia. The word adorned the country's billboards last year, accompanied by the image of Sheikh Muszaphar Shukor Malaysia's first astronaut standing proudly in a space suit. The idea to send a Malaysian into space was hatched in 2003 when a Sukhoi fighter-jet deal was signed with Russia, which offered to send a Malaysian into space as a sweetener.

Muszaphar's journey, aboard a Russian-made Soyuz rocket launched from Kazakhstan, was significant. He did not just represent Malaysia. As only the ninth Muslim in space fasting during Ramadan no less his journey carried international significance. At least that's what Malaysia would like the world to think.

Unfortunately, the opposite is true. Malaysia has been struggling to gain anyone's attention since the hand-over of power by controversial former leader Dr Mahathir Mohamad in 2004 to current Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi.

It's not that the country hasn't tried there has been just as much scandal, ignominy, racial and religious tension now than ever before. But nothing has caught the eye of the international community in the way Mahathir was able to time and time again. While at home, most Malaysians feel that their politics is not worth the effort.

All this changed at the weekend as Malaysians went to the polls at both state and federal level. In a surprise result the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional, suffered a shock voter backlash. While a reduced majority was expected, few would have predicted that the ruling coalition would fail to achieve a 60 per cent majority in federal parliament. At state level, experts were predicting at least one state to be in opposition hands (Kelantan) but not five.

Ordinarily Malaysians have to wait five years before going to the polls. This time they have voted a year early. Why? Most foreign pundits believe it was to prevent the deposed former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim from standing. He's still banned from politics until April 15 on previous charges of corruption.

But while keeping Anwar out of politics may have been a factor, three other reasons were probably more important to the ruling coalition.

The first is an increasing concern over Abdullah's own leadership, which is a far cry from Mahathir, who, like him or loathe him, demonstrated at least one thing brilliantly that Malaysia matters. Talk of Abdullah's retirement is increasing in Kuala Lumpur coffee shops. By calling a snap election and winning it comfortably, Abdullah would be better placed to set his own hand-over agenda rather than face a tap on the shoulder. Given the shock result, he has cause for concern.

A second reason is ongoing racial tension, this time with the Indian community, many of whom feel they are being treated like second-class citizens. More than 20,000 Malaysian Indians rallied in Kuala Lumpur in November led by a group known as Hindu Rights Action Force to fight for better rights. The protest turned violent, forcing police to use tear gas and a water cannon to break it up.

By holding the elections early, the ruling coalition would have been hoping to stem the expected loss of support from non-Malays. A high-profile casualty was the leader of the Indian party in the ruling coalition, Samy Vellu.

A third reason for going to the polls early is an economic downturn that Malaysia will likely experience later in the year. This is likely to see inflation in the country rise, increasing the cost of basic goods. A downturn will noticeably affect millions of ordinary Malaysians, and potentially dry up the flow of much-needed foreign investment. The Abdullah administration would have felt it better to have an election out of the way before the downturn hits, rather than face an even bigger backlash from voters.

Given the election result, a purge of Abdullah is not out of the question. The safer bet is that he'll hand over power in the next three to five years. His replacement is almost certain to be the current deputy Najib Tun Razak, the son of Malaysia's highly respected second prime minister. In a country where patronage matters, Najib has been groomed for the top job since he was first elected to Parliament at age 23 (he is now in his 50s). While Najib is no Mahathir, he is controversial perhaps more through his actions than his words. It got prickly for him a few years ago, when a Mongolian woman was found dead having been first shot and then blown to pieces by explosives allegedly at the hands of two of Najib's police bodyguards.

Far less certain is who will become the next deputy prime minister after Najib is promoted. The position is likely to be filled by one of the next generation of leaders. The three main contenders are all Malay, as is always the case: the current Education Minister and son of Malaysia's third prime minister, Hishammuddin Tun Hussein; the MP and son of former prime minister Mahathir, Mukhriz Mahathir; and the son-in-law of Abdullah, Khairy Jamaluddin, who stood for Parliament for the first time at the weekend. All have ambition and pedigree behind them. And all have waved the "keris" (traditional Malay dagger) so to speak on behalf of their party. Hishammuddin, in his mid-40s, would be a safe bet. He appears to be looking for a senior appointment. Mukhriz's star rose quickly a few years ago, but his support is waning as his father's health deteriorates.

This leaves Khairy as probably the most talented and most controversial option. At just 32, he has packed a lot into his life, with wide-ranging business, sporting and political interests. Rumour has it that Khairy wants to be prime minister by the age of 40. He will want Abdullah to stay in power for as long as possible to help make the journey easier.

As for Anwar, he will likely re-enter politics if he so chooses, via his wife's safe seat or perhaps even his daughter's seat thanks to her unexpected win, in a by-election that will probably be held in the not too distant future.

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